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Depuis la révolution de 1979 et la rupture avec Washington, l’Iran a structuré sa survie autour d’une posture de défi permanent, longtemps contenue dans une guerre de l’ombre. Cette retenue a volé en éclats : l’élimination de l’Ayatollah Ali KHAMENEI lors des premières frappes a précipité la radicalisation du régime, désormais incarné par son fils, Mojtaba KHAMENEI, propulsé au pouvoir.
Fort de l’expérience de la « guerre des 12 jours » en juin 2025, Téhéran a imposé une surprise tactique totale. Au lieu d’une réponse conventionnelle, le régime a déployé des capacités asymétriques imprévues, notamment des essaims de drones sous-marins et des batteries de missiles mobiles. Cette défense en profondeur a neutralisé une partie des capacités engagées et permis de verrouiller physiquement le passage maritime. En minant les eaux, l’Iran ne cherche plus une victoire militaire hors de portée, mais une asphyxie globale, propulsant le baril au-delà de 100 dollars.
Dans l’ombre, la Chine et la Russie jouent une partition complexe. Pékin, premier importateur de pétrole iranien, dénonce l’escalade tout en fournissant une assistance technologique vitale, transformant le Golfe en laboratoire de guerre électronique de nouvelle génération. De son côté, Moscou tire profit du chaos pour fixer les ressources militaires américaines, limitant leur capacité d’action sur le front européen. Pour ces deux puissances, l’embrasement du détroit est un levier stratégique majeur pour affaiblir l’hégémonie occidentale.
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À Téhéran comme à Washington, la partie d’échecs est devenue une lutte pour la survie des modèles politiques respectifs. Sur un échiquier où l’économie dicte la loi du plus fort, ce ne sont plus seulement les armées qui sont engagées, mais le contrat social de nations entières. Le détroit d’Ormuz, par lequel transite 20 % du pétrole mondial, est devenu le miroir d’un monde où la stabilité est devenue précaire, à la merci d’une étincelle, et où le coût du baril est devenu le baromètre de la fragilité de l’ordre mondial.
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