Le secteur économique est très affecté par la dégradation du climat sécuritaire et l’instabilité politique. Alors que l’économie nationale est en chute libre depuis plusieurs années, les récents événements l’ont mise à genou et la situation risque de détériorer davantage face à ce climat d’incertitude.
Après avoir connu 5 années consécutives de croissance négative, l’économie risque de connaître une sixième année de décroissance selon les spécialistes dans le domaine. Ceci, après avoir enregistré une croissance négative évaluée à -0,9%, en 2023.
En nette régression ces dernières années, notre économie est caractérisée par une inflation galopante, la dépréciation de la gourde par rapport au dollar, la cherté de la vie, la non circulation de personnes et de marchandises avec la violence armée qui vient de s’ajouter à la liste. En plus, les récents événements, qui sont passés ces derniers jours dans la capital haïtienne, ont compliqué les données. Plusieurs entreprises sont pillées ou incendiées par les individus armés. D’autres sont obligés de fermer leur porte. Le commerce et les écoles sont dysfonctionnels.
Tous les secteurs sont frappés de plein fouet par l’extension de la violence inouïe des gangs armés, même celui le plus important, le secteur tertiaire. L’année dernière, le secteur des services a connu une décroissance de -2,9%, cette année elle risque de descendre au plus bas niveau de l’échelle, selon l’économiste Enomy Germain.
« Le commerce, que ce soit formel ou informel, est totalement bloqué. Les banques commerciales fonctionnent occasionnellement et dans un espace de temps limité. Les marchés commerciaux, notamment les plus grands du pays, sont dysfonctionnels. C’est un mauvais signe », nous dit le professeur d’université.
Les activités sont en baisse dans l’économie pour le premier semestre de l’année fiscale 2023-2024, soit du mois d’octobre à mars, l’économie a chuté. Qui pis est, le deuxième semestre commence dans un contexte de turbulences politiques et d’une insécurité de premier degré.
Le secteur secondaire, qui était presqu’ inexistant, risque de disparaître, car le secteur de la sous-traitance et textile laisse à désirer. Ce, en raison de la fermeture des ports et aéroports du pays depuis février dernier, le secteur industriel est dans l’incapacité d’exporter leurs produits vers d’autres pays. Ce secteur a connu une baisse en 2023 de -3,7%.
L’année précédente, le secteur primaire ou le secteur agricole a baissé de -5,6%, il a été le plus affecté. Pour 2024, il risque de détériorer, car un des départements clés de ce secteur, l’Artibonite, est dans l’incapacité de fonctionner depuis plusieurs années à cause de sa prise en otage par les activités des gangs armés. Pour le grand Sud et le Nord, c’est presque le même cadre figure, la majorité des départements sont délaissés en raison des activités criminelles.
« La première moitié de l’exercice fiscal est déjà perdue, pour la deuxième moitié, elle reste incertaine car jusqu’ici aucune mesure n’est prise par les autorités gouvernementales ou étatiques pour remédier à cette situation alarmante », explique l’économiste.
« La politique de sécurité est le meilleur moyen de sauver l’économie nationale. Sans la sécurité, il n’y pas d’économie. Si rien n’est fait, ces 3 secteurs risquent de plonger dans la négative. Ce qui va compliquer la situation de la population », a conclu le PDG de la firme ProEco.
*L’économie s’est contractée pendant quatre années consécutives de 1,7 % en 2019; 3,3 % en 2020; 1,8 % en 2021 et 1,7 % en 2022. Le PIB devrait se contracter de 2,5 % au cours de l’exercice 2023. Les estimations de la Banque mondiale montrent qu’en 2023, la pauvreté s’est augmentée près de 34% (seuil de pauvreté international de 2,15 dollars/jour) et à 63% (3,65 dollars/jour).
L’Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d’Informatique, (IHSI), a rapporté que l’Indice Général des Prix à la Consommation (IPC, 100 en 2017-2018), qui se chiffrait à 362.5 en janvier, est passé à 373.6 en février 2024 et a enregistré une forte hausse en rythme mensuel de +3,1% en février contre 1,1% le mois précédent. En glissement annuel, l’inflation se chiffre maintenant à 23,0% en février 2024 contre 20,9% le mois précédent. L’inflation risque d’être revue en baisse vu que le mois de mars a été plus compliqué que le deuxième mois de l’année.
Haïti reste le pays le plus pauvre de la région de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes parmi les pays les plus pauvres au monde. En 2022, Haïti avait un PIB par habitant de 1 745,9 dollars américains et un indice de GINI de 41,1. Selon l’indice de développement humain de l’ONU, Haïti est classée 163e sur 191 pays en 2022.
Résultats, la population risque de connaître une insécurité alimentaire et famine. Le taux de chômage a considérablement augmenté ces derniers jours, les 3 secteurs de l’économie subissent la loi des gangs, les recettes de l’État diminue également et plus de personnes risquent de devenir plus pauvres.
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